Tag: hypothetical matchup

SHOCK POLL: Romney’s best state in 2012 in play for Democrats this time arond

Utah, a state that hasn’t received a ton of media attention since the 2002 Winter Olympics and, in the 2012 Presidential Election, was the strongest state for the failed Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan ticket, could be on its way to giving its 6 general election electoral votes to the Democratic presidential nominee should Donald Trump win the Republican presidential nomination:

The poll was conducted by Dan Jones & Associates for the Deseret News and KSL-TV, the NBC affiliate in Salt Lake City, Utah. The poll shows Bernie Sanders running nine points better than Hillary Clinton, assuming that Donald Trump is the Republican nominee.

This comes on the heels of a recent Marquette University poll in Wisconsin that showed Donald Trump having an extremely high disapproval rating in the Milwaukee, Wisconsin suburbs, which are typically thought of as one of the most racist areas in America and a region of the country that typically gives at least two-thirds of its votes to Republican candidate.

To give you a general idea of how difficult it would be for Trump to win a presidential general election if he were to lose Utah and Wisconsin, here is literally the only realistic path I can think of in which Trump could lose Utah and Wisconsin, and still win the general election. Please note that I’m assuming that, if Utah flips to the Democrats, than Arizona would almost certainly do so as well.

I could understand why Republicans in Utah would not like Trump, as the style of conservatism that is rampant in Utah (heavily influenced by the Mormon faith) is a lot different than Trump’s style of conservatism. Remember that Trump’s style of conservatism emphasizes pitting white people against ethnic minorities, but Utah Republicans have long emphasized social conservatism. Regarding the Milwaukee suburbs, that’s a total mystery as to why Trump is not popular among Republicans there, as that region of the country became heavily populated due to white flight from Milwaukee itself.

Why a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote for Scott Walker

There is one simple reason why Hillary Clinton cannot defeat Scott Walker in next year’s general election for president: too many people have an opinion of Hillary.

If one were to look at page 50 of the latest polling data from Public Policy Polling (PPP) in North Carolina, a swing state that narrowly went for Republican Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election, one will find that Scott Walker leads Hillary Clinton 47%-43% in a hypothetical general election matchup, with 10% of those unsure of who to vote for if the general election is between Hillary and Walker. However, of those who self-identify as Democrats, only 6% are unsure, whereas 9% of self-identified Republicans and 19% of independents (independents are a Republican-leaning group of voters in North Carolina) are unsure of who to support. To put that another way, most of the undecided voters in a Hillary vs. Walker matchup in North Carolina lean towards Walker, so it’s virtually impossible for Hillary to win North Carolina against Walker.

If one were to scroll down a page to page 51 of the polling data, one will find that Scott Walker leads Bernie Sanders 43%-35% in a hypothetical general election matchup in North Carolina, with 22% of those unsure of who to vote for if the general election is between Bernie and Walker. However, of those who are Democrats, 27% are unsure, compared to 12% of Republicans and 26% of independents. This means that Bernie is in a far better position to gain support in North Carolina than Hillary is, because there’s still a lot more people considering supporting Bernie in the general election should he win the Democratic nomination than those who are considering supporting Hillary should she win the Democratic nomination.

North Carolina isn’t necessarily a must-win state for Democrats in next year’s presidential election, but Democrats winning North Carolina would leave Republicans with very little chance of winning the presidential election. Should Scott Walker win the Republican presidential nomination, the only Democratic candidate who can defeat Walker in North Carolina is Bernie Sanders.